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Probabilistic Approach Takes You Back to Reality
Paper Abstract 5/21/2005

One of the most important outputs of the static model is the volumetrics of the original hydrocarbon in place (OHIP). According to the type of reservoir driving mechanism, the reservoir engineer can assume the recovery factor and hence the recoverable reserves. Most simulation studies are being conducted on fields considering a period of production performance to determine the remaining reserves and the best scenario of development to produce these reserves, which is the main function of the dynamic model.

The volumetrics could be approached using a Monte Carlo technique, the end product of which is a range of probable OHIP and, consequently using a range of recovery factors, getting probability distribution of the recoverable reserves. Therefore, a probabilistic approach is superior to deterministic in all fields because it captures the full range of reality, particularly where models are not yet calibrated to dynamic data.

Sometimes, the dynamic data may take a surprise turn from the geological understanding. Different realizations, even the crazy ones, may help under the probability distribution functions in defining some certainties that have not yet even been imagined. In addition, each of the dynamic modelís scenarios yields extra recovery, the certainty of which can be evaluated using the probability distribution curve of the remaining reserves. This certainty has direct influence on the economics approval of one scenario over the others.

The current work introduces actual case histories demonstrating how the probabilistic approach could be of real help in selecting the production enhancement scenario and how this tool also could be used to prioritize management interests.

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